Student Loan Bubble

The student loan bubble is going to burst. It’s only a matter of time.

The struggle for young Americans to get a place on the U.S. property ladder is intensifying.

A new report issued Thursday by the New York Federal Reserve found that up to 35 percent of the recent dramatic decline in home ownership can be explained by the rising piles of loans millennials are taking out to finance their education, doing so at a time when government funding for colleges is waning and colleges are, in turn, subjecting students to massive hikes in tuition.

Student loans now average about $37,000 for graduates of the Class of 2016, with monthly payments for those loans preventing them from saving for a down payment and making monthly mortgage payments, freezing them out of the residential home market.
The millennials are either turning into a permanent renter class or boomeranging back to childhood homes to live with mom and dad. Nearly 45 percent of people in their early twenties live with their parents, up from 33.5 percent in 2004, the Fed said.

Home ownership among young consumers dropped off rapidly following the Great Recession, from 32 percent in 2007 to 21 percent in 2016. This occurred at a time of record-low interest rates when in most U.S. housing markets it was cheaper to buy a home than to rent.

That’s a chief reason why homebuilders have increasingly turned towards move-up and luxury home building and away from starter homes: the buyers are just not there.

Most millennials I know don’t even dream of owning a house. And those who do, didn’t go to college. They don’t have mountains of student loan debt to pay off. But many followed in line with the lies. Previous generations told us that this was how it works. You get a loan, you study hard, you get a degree, you get a job, you pay it off, and eventually buy a home. Why did they tell us this? Because it was possible a few decades ago. It’s not anymore.

In a world where applying for a job requires going through a filter of hundreds if not thousands of online applications where you’re merits are graded for a couple seconds based on a sheet of paper being scanned by a piece of software, we hardly stand a chance of earning the minimum 40k it takes to even begin making the kind of income one needs to pay off these debts. 

The student loan bubble is primed and ready to burst. The question is when. Not if, but when.

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